Australia's Path Out of Recession: A Long Road Ahead

1

A significant contributor to this decline has been the household sector. By the second quarter of 2024, there was a notable 2.4% reduction in real per capita household consumption from its peak level.

Alarmingly, real per capita household disposable income experienced an even steeper drop, plunging by approximately 8%, as shown in national accounts data. This marks the largest recorded decrease in Australia’s history.

In its latest economic outlook, encapsulated in the Red Book for October, Westpac predicts a slow recovery process from this recession. They highlight the harsh fall in per capita disposable income, which their analysis pegs at a dramatic 10% drop.

According to Westpac, “The combined effect of rising income tax payments, higher interest and the surge in inflation has produced a 4.8% drop in aggregate terms since Sep 2021 and an eye-watering 10% plunge in per capita terms.”

Westpac draws a stark comparison to the early 1990s recession, stating, “That is about double the size of the decline seen during the recession in the early-1990s (when the average mortgage interest rate was 15% and the unemployment rate spiked 4ppts on its way to an eventual peak of over 11%).”

There is a slightly improving consumer mood, bolstered by tax cuts and other governmental aid, and an optimistic shift in expectations for interest rates. “The consumer mood has become considerably less bleak, buoyed on the one hand by the additional cash in hand as tax cuts and other support measures flow through, and on the other by turning expectations for interest rates.”

Commenting on consumer sentiment, Westpac notes, “The most striking sentiment shift over the last three months has again been around consumer expectations for interest rates. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Mortgage Rate Expectations Index fell by a third between July and October.”

Despite these modest shifts in consumer sentiment, Westpac cautions that full economic recovery may proceed at a gradual pace. “The medium-term recovery process looks likely to be a slow one,” they warn.

Factors contributing to this sluggish recovery include a gentle easing cycle by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the slow rebound of household disposable incomes, and reduced use of savings reserves accrued during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, deceleration in population growth poses another challenge.

Ultimately, Westpac concludes that despite some encouraging developments, the path to consumer recovery remains extensive. “Despite some more promising signs, the consumer recovery still has a long way to go.”

These insights and forecasts, grounded in Westpac’s research and national data, highlight the complex road to recovery facing Australia today, encouraging consumers and policymakers alike to brace for a protracted economic landscape.

Published:Friday, 1st Nov 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Share this news item:

Finance News

AI in Financial Planning: Unlocking Potential with Prudence 21 Nov 2024: Paige Estritori Artificial Intelligence (AI) has rapidly become a focal point in modern financial planning, offering the potential to transform how advisers interact with clients. By providing automated solutions for routine tasks and analyzing vast data sets, AI promises increased efficiency and more personalized financial recommendations. - read more

Financial Advisory Expansion: Balancing Growth and Regulatory Challenges 20 Nov 2024: Paige Estritori The financial advisory sector in Australia is poised for significant expansion, with the potential to extend advisory services to an additional 650,000 clients. This promising development hinges on resolving existing regulatory barriers. A detailed analysis by Empower Business Advisory, sponsored by Colonial First State, underlines this potential shift in the industry landscape. - read more

Aussie Homeowners Show Resilience Amidst Rising Interest Rates 20 Nov 2024: Paige Estritori Amid the global economic shifts, Australian homeowners, notably exposed to fluctuating interest rates, have defied pessimistic predictions and demonstrated resilience. Unlike many countries, most Australian mortgages are subject to variable interest rates, which heightens sensitivity to cash rate changes. - read more

NAB Faces Legal Action for Delayed Hardship Responses 19 Nov 2024: Paige Estritori In a recent development within the financial sector, the National Australia Bank (NAB) finds itself embroiled in a legal dispute initiated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC). At the center of the controversy are allegations that the bank failed to timely respond to hundreds of loan hardship applications from its customers. - read more

Employment Holds Steady Amid Rate Speculation 15 Nov 2024: Paige Estritori Australia's unemployment rate remained fixed at 4.1% this October, marking the third consecutive month without change, according to newly released Australian Bureau of Statistics data. Despite this steady figure, the growth of new jobs appears to be waning. - read more

UK Broker Hit with Multi-Million Pound Penalty for Misallocated Premiums 15 Nov 2024: Paige Estritori A UK brokerage owner has been ordered to pay a substantial fine exceeding £1 million (approximately $1.96 million) and has been barred permanently from the financial services industry. This comes after regulators found him guilty of financially mismanaging funds intended for insurers and providing misleading information. - read more

Unprecedented Surge in Australia's ETF Market 14 Nov 2024: Paige Estritori Australian investors are rewriting the record books in the exchange-traded fund (ETF) sector, with data from BetaShares illustrating impressive growth figures that have taken the market by storm. Inflows have surged to $23.7 billion by October, far exceeding the previous yearly high of $23.2 billion established in 2021. - read more