Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Author: Paige Estritori

Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

What the Latest RBA Rate Hold Means for Your Car Loan Plans

08 Sep 2026: Paige Estritori

Australian car buyers have received a little more certainty, with the Reserve Bank of Australia keeping the official cash rate steady at its latest board meeting. For households, sole traders and small business owners considering a vehicle purchase, the decision reduces one source of short-term uncertainty. It does not, however, mean car finance has suddenly become simple or uniformly cheaper. - read more

Car Loan Competition Is Still There, But So Are the Traps

01 Sep 2026: Paige Estritori

Late-August car loan market reporting suggests Australian borrowers are still seeing pockets of sharp competition, particularly for newer vehicles and applicants with strong credit profiles. That is encouraging for households and small business owners who delayed a purchase during the winter, but it should not be read as a blanket sign that all finance has become cheaper or easier to secure. - read more

Used EV Bargains Are Emerging, But Finance Still Needs Care

25 Aug 2026: Paige Estritori

Australia’s electric vehicle story is moving beyond new-car sales and into the used-car yard. Latest industry reporting points to a softer second-hand EV market, with prices under pressure as more near-new electric cars reach resale channels and manufacturers keep discounting selected new models. For buyers, that can look like an opening: a lower purchase price may bring an EV within reach without stretching to a brand-new model. - read more

What Australia’s Vehicle Efficiency Shift Means for Car Buyers

31 Jul 2026: Paige Estritori

Australia’s New Vehicle Efficiency Standard has moved from policy debate into a practical market force for new-car buyers. The scheme is designed to push the national fleet towards lower-emission vehicles by setting targets for car makers across the vehicles they supply. It does not ban petrol or diesel models, but it does change the commercial pressure behind what arrives in showrooms, how it is priced and where incentives may appear. - read more

What Australia’s Record EV Sales Mean for Your Next Car Loan

24 Jul 2026: Paige Estritori

Australia’s new-car market has entered a very different phase, with June 2026 delivering the strongest monthly sales result on record and electric vehicles moving from niche consideration to mainstream choice. The latest figures show more than 140,000 new vehicles delivered across the month, with battery-electric models accounting for almost one in four sales. For car buyers, that is not just an automotive story. It is a finance story. - read more

What July's Car Loan Rate Snapshot Means for Australian Buyers

17 Jul 2026: Paige Estritori

Fresh July 2026 car loan comparison data points to a competitive market for well-qualified borrowers, with some secured car loan products advertising rates in the mid-five per cent range. For buyers looking at a new or near-new vehicle, that may sound encouraging after a period of higher household costs and tighter lending conditions. But the more useful takeaway is not simply that lower advertised rates exist. - read more

Record June Car Sales Signal a New Finance Landscape

10 Jul 2026: Paige Estritori

Australia’s new-car market has delivered another major signal to borrowers: the vehicle choices shaping car finance are changing quickly. In June 2026, combined new-vehicle deliveries reached 140,058, making it the strongest month recorded for the local market. The headline number matters, but the detail matters even more for buyers planning personal or business car loans. - read more

Click for more Finance News