Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

32

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

ASIC's Review Highlights Concerns in Car Finance Practices

13 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has recently conducted a comprehensive review of the nation's motor vehicle finance sector, uncovering significant issues that raise concerns about consumer protection and lending practices. - read more

Australian Used Hybrid Car Sales Experience Significant Growth

13 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian used car market is witnessing a notable surge in hybrid vehicle sales, reflecting a growing consumer inclination towards sustainable and practical transportation options. - read more

Commonwealth Bank's AI Assistant Revolutionizes Car Market Price Discovery

13 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has unveiled a pioneering artificial intelligence (AI) assistant designed to enhance price discovery and transparency in the Australian car market. This innovative tool aims to empower consumers by providing detailed insights into vehicle pricing, a resource previously accessible primarily to car dealers. - read more

ASIC's Investigation Highlights Concerns in Car Finance Practices

05 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has recently conducted a comprehensive review of the nation's motor vehicle finance sector, uncovering significant issues that raise concerns about consumer protection and lending practices. - read more

CBA's AI Assistant Revolutionises Car Market Price Discovery

05 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has unveiled a pioneering artificial intelligence (AI) assistant designed to enhance price discovery and transparency in the Australian car market. This innovative tool aims to empower consumers by providing detailed insights into vehicle pricing, a resource previously accessible primarily to car dealers. - read more

New Government Initiative Provides Low-Interest Loans for Electric Vehicles

05 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

In a significant move to promote the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) among Australian businesses, the government has announced a $50 million partnership with Metro Finance to provide low-interest loans for the purchase of EVs. This initiative is designed to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in transitioning to cleaner transportation options, thereby reducing emissions and energy costs. - read more

Australia's Used Hybrid Car Market Experiences Significant Growth

28 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian used car market is witnessing a notable surge in hybrid vehicle sales, reflecting a growing consumer inclination towards sustainable and practical transportation options. - read more

Click for more Finance News