Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

32

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Rising Car Loan Delinquencies Signal Financial Strain Among Australians

25 Oct 2025: Paige Estritori

Recent data indicates a concerning rise in car loan delinquencies across Australia, with a 13% increase in vehicle repossessions over the past six months. This trend underscores the growing financial pressures faced by many Australians, as inflation and high interest rates continue to impact household budgets. - read more

Westpac Divests Auto Finance Loans in Strategic Move

25 Oct 2025: Paige Estritori

In a significant strategic shift, Westpac Banking Corporation has announced its decision to sell its auto finance loan book to Resimac Group. The transaction, valued between A$1.4 billion and A$1.6 billion, aligns with Westpac's ongoing strategy to streamline operations and focus on core banking services. - read more

Bank Australia Ends Financing for New Fossil Fuel Vehicles

17 Oct 2025: Paige Estritori

In a bold move towards sustainability, Bank Australia has ceased offering loans for new petrol, diesel, and hybrid vehicles as of February 2025. This strategic decision aligns with the bank's commitment to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2035 and underscores its dedication to promoting environmentally friendly transportation options. - read more

Surge in Car Loan Delinquencies Sparks Financial Sector Worries

17 Oct 2025: Paige Estritori

Australia is witnessing a notable increase in car loan delinquencies, with a corresponding rise in vehicle repossessions and auctions. This trend is raising alarms about the financial well-being of consumers and potential ripple effects on the broader financial sector. - read more

Macquarie Bank Shifts Strategy: Exits Car Loans to Prioritise Mortgages

09 Oct 2025: Paige Estritori

In a significant strategic shift, Macquarie Bank has announced its decision to cease offering car loans, redirecting its focus towards expanding its mortgage and deposit services. This move is set to result in the loss of approximately 100 jobs within the bank's automotive lending division. - read more

The Digital Revolution in Auto Financing: A Boon for Australian Car Buyers

09 Oct 2025: Paige Estritori

The automotive finance industry in Australia is undergoing a significant digital transformation, offering consumers more streamlined and personalised experiences when securing car loans. This shift is largely driven by fintech companies leveraging advanced technologies to simplify the borrowing process. - read more

Revolutionising the Used Car Market: The Rise of Data-Driven Platforms in Australia

09 Oct 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian used car market is experiencing a transformative shift, driven by innovative platforms that leverage data to enhance the car buying experience. One such platform, Carma, is at the forefront of this revolution, offering consumers a seamless online process to purchase quality-assured used vehicles. - read more

Click for more Finance News