Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Author: Paige Estritori

Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

What AFIA’s Motor Finance Report Means for Car Buyers

19 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

Australia’s motor finance market is changing quickly, and the latest report from the Australian Finance Industry Association, released on 5 June 2026, puts non-bank vehicle lenders firmly in the spotlight. The report says motor finance non-bank lenders supported 507,000 consumer and commercial vehicle purchases in 2025, with $24.4 billion in new loans and $53 billion in active loan balances at year end. - read more

GWM's EOFY 2026 Deals: Low-Rate Finance and New EV Launch

12 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

As the end of the financial year approaches, GWM has unveiled enticing offers for Australian car buyers, focusing on both traditional and electric vehicle (EV) markets. These promotions are designed to cater to a diverse range of consumers, from those seeking low-interest financing to individuals interested in the latest EV models. - read more

RBA Maintains Cash Rate at 4.35% Amidst Economic Challenges

12 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

In its June 2026 meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep the official cash rate steady at 4.35%. This decision comes after a series of rate hikes earlier in the year, reflecting the central bank's cautious approach amid ongoing economic uncertainties. - read more

Peter Warren Automotive Adjusts Profit Expectations Amid Market Challenges

12 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

Peter Warren Automotive Holdings, a prominent Australian dealer group, has revised its profit forecast for the fiscal year 2026, projecting an underlying profit before tax between $12 million and $15 million. This adjustment reflects the company's response to challenging market conditions that have impacted trading margins and overall financial performance. - read more

Toyota Boosts Australian Supply with 10,000 Extra Vehicles in 2026

05 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

In a strategic move to address growing consumer demand and intensifying competition, Toyota Australia has secured an additional 10,000 vehicles for the 2026 market. This increase elevates the company's full-year sales forecast to 220,000 units, with popular models such as the RAV4, HiLux, and the all-electric bZ4X set to benefit from the expanded supply. - read more

Money3 Penalised $1.55 Million for Responsible Lending Violations

05 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

In a significant ruling, the Federal Court has ordered Money3 Loans Pty Ltd to pay penalties totaling $1.55 million for breaching responsible lending obligations in the provision of car finance to vulnerable consumers. This decision underscores the critical importance of adhering to responsible lending practices within the financial services industry. - read more

Electric Vehicles Capture 20% of Australian New Car Sales in May 2026

05 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

In May 2026, electric vehicles (EVs) achieved a significant milestone in the Australian automotive market, accounting for 20% of all new car sales. This development underscores a rapid shift in consumer preferences towards more sustainable transportation options. - read more

Click for more Finance News